Healthy Contention
Steph Curry, Mike Trout, and Patrick Mahomes are not rich because they're the best at what they do. They are rich because they are the best....and people care
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Steph Curry is not rich because he is the world’s best shooter.
Mike Trout is not rich because he is the world’s best hitter.
And Patrick Mahomes is not rich because he is the world’s best passer.
They are rich because they are best in the world…at something people care about.
While that may sound like semantics, it is not. Just ask the world’s best lacrosse player, volleyball player, or softball player.
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We love sports because it is an unmatched mix of two things:
Individuals accomplishing incredible feats
The world’s best reality show
Most people (myself included) love to talk about the first thing.
Did you see how unhittable Jacob deGrom has been? How remarkable is Shohei Ohtani’s two way dominance? Or what about that Patrick Mahomes throw?
But let’s not pretend we don’t love the drama as well. Both on and off the field.
Can you believe KD went to Brooklyn?
Who will blink first- Rodgers or the Packers?
The best thing about sports stories is they are real. The possibilities are endless. And, as opposed to other forms of entertainment, the viewer never gets to claim “it’s not believable”.
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Once any league realizes it is running an entertainment company as well as a competition of the world’s best athletes, the question then becomes how to best serve two masters.
How does the NBA deal with Kawhi Leonard resting during a large portion of the regular reason?
How does MLB handle the increase in strike out rate?
While these may seem like very different questions, they are getting at the same problem: How does a league balance each team’s individual championship aspirations with the group’s business interests.
Separation of Church and State
The league office is in charge of the long-term success of the sport. Therefore, they need to be singularly focused on this goal via one key metric: fan engagement.
While the leagues themselves may be non-profits, they are comprised of thirty or so very for profit organizations. Their goal is to make money and any business leader worth their salt will tell you engagement leads to dollars.
So, if you are running MLB, or the NFL, or the NBA, you need to prioritize long-term engagement. To get more specific, you need to care about:
Ratings- which can come via stars, large markets, great games, or fascinating storylines.
Fairness- and even more so perceived fairness
Your partners- as the media, gambling entities, and more not only drive short term dollars, but also long term retention.
A stylistic match- ensuring the viewers’ experience is what casual fans want to see.
Equally important, you need to be clear about what you do not care about:
Who wins- I hope.
If the best team wins- the game needs to be fair, but randomness is OK.
The record books- or anything that is backwards looking.
Keeping the game the way it was- preferences change and so should the product.
None of the above you should be controversial. The league is running an entertainment company. And, by in large, both players and fans are better off because of it.
Players, especially in sports with a revenue share, have seen their salaries rise at compounding rates that would make hedge fund managers blush.
And fans have greater access to more entertainment in a wider variety of ways than ever before.
So, why are we riddled with stories of players and fans complaining about league changes?
Because the league is set up for this very purpose.
While the league office is singularly focused on engagement, players and organizations are maniacally fixated on championships.
How do you think Masai Ujiri thinks of the all the time Kawhi took off prior to the Raptors hoisting the 2019 NBA Championship trophy?
I bet he’s quite OK with it.
I also bet he would have a different opinion if he was employed by the league office instead of the Raptors.
Theo Epstein agrees. After stepping down from running the Chicago Cubs to take a role with MLB, here are his words from a January Bleacher Report article:
So is Epstein a hypocrite for attempting to reduce the high strikeout rate he helped create? Is Ujiri wrong for being a fan of load management at the expense of putting the best product on the court during the regular season?
Not at all.
These are top level executives. They are just as competitive as the athletes they work with and, if someone gives them an optimization problem, they will find ways to solve it.
Want more proof? Here is Daryl Morey, the architect of a James Harden led Houston Rockets franchise that lived for years on the extreme efficiency of the three point shot?
Morey is clear the league needs to step in as teams have taken three point shooting too far. His argument, and that of many fans, is teams are too homogenous and the game is less exciting than it used to be.
While Morey is way more likely to say this on a podcast today- as GM of a 76ers team that is handicapped by its lack of shooting- he admits his opinion hasn’t changed from his time in Houston.
He knew the three pointer was a cheat code. He knew teams should use it to their advantage. And he knew once every team inevitably came to the same conclusion, it would hurt the NBA’s product, and the league would have to step in.
But until they did so, he’d be crazy not to exploit it…especially while running a team led by James Harden.
So Whose Side Are You On?
How should we feel about the NBA’s play-in tournament?
As a casual fan, I am all in. I get to watch more basketball. I get an exciting last two weeks of the regular season with teams jockeying for position. And this year, I got to enjoy a Steph Curry vs Lebron James game I would not have otherwise seen.
As a Lakers, Grizzles, Celtics, or Wizards fan though? I’m pissed. My team’s road got harder.
How about when the NFL continues to pass rule after rule that allows for more scoring?
Defenders may claim they hate it. And fans may claim they agree. But both are liars…even if they don’t know it.
Fans are the obvious ones. The league makes changes to drive engagement. In other words, they make changes to appease fans.
How about the players? They may hate the actual rule. But they sure don’t hate the increased TV deals that grow league revenue, the salary cap, and in turn their compensation.
So whose side am I on?
I’m on both…because we need both.
I want the coach of my favorite basketball team to rest our stars. I don’t care if it comes at the expense of a regular season win in January.
I want my favorite baseball team shifting, hitting bombs, and not caring about strikeouts. I don’t care if 40,000 people in attendance are a bit bored.
And I want my favorite football team going for it more on fourth down despite….all right, that one is both a competitive advantage and more fun. Punting on 4th and less than 5 past midfield should be a fireable offense.
I’m a hypocrite. We all are.
Because while I want my favorite basketball team resting its stars, I want the league to do what it can to stop everyone else from doing so. Watching the best players is simply more fun.
Likewise, while my team should shift and only try to hit homers, I want the league ensuring the Sunday Night Game I put on in the background is littered with balls in play, stealing, long rallies, and more.
We Need Both Sides
The healthiest leagues have two sides. Each side needs to be singularly focused on their goal. And each side needs to trust the other do its job.
We need a league looking to maximize engagement- and not caring who wins
And we need teams and players looking to do anything they can to win- and not caring about engagement.
We need both.
And they need each other.
Lebron James clearly cares about the health of the NBA. His compensation is tied to it. He’s been signing max contracts that are formulaically tied to the league revenue for a decade, and his off court endorsements and businesses are largely driven by the NBA’s popularity.
However, the league works best when he doesn’t have to care. It works best when he hates the play in tournament because it made his road to the finals tougher…even if it did put a few more dollars in his bank account.